Week 4 Fantasy Recap

Alright, Sunday Night is in the books. Thursday was Pittsburgh at Cleveland. Falcons-Saints is tonight, so I’m skipping it. This is Week 4 through Carolina’s 32–26 win.

Four weeks is when usage starts looking like a role. Sunday was also a carnage week. Health is going to do more rest-of-season work than any box score.

Stock up: Kenneth Walker III, Tetairoa McMillan, CeeDee Lamb, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Kyle Monangai, Nico Collins, Zay Flowers, Drake Maye, Romeo Doubs, Ollie Gordon II, T.J. Hockenson, Keon Coleman, Chuba Hubbard, Emanuel Wilson, Colston Loveland, Javonte Williams, Quinshon Judkins

Stock down / caution: Ladd McConkey (foot), Justin Herbert and the Chargers, Ja'Marr Chase (concussion), Saquon Barkley (hamstring), Rashee Rice (hamstring), Tyquan Thornton (ankle), DJ Moore (shoulder), Tee Higgins (adductor), Lamar Jackson (ankle), Terry McLaurin (hamstring), Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Dalton Kincaid, MarShawn Lloyd, Marvin Harrison Jr., TreVeyon Henderson

The scoreboard, real quick

CLE 27–24 PIT (Thu). IND 30–13 WAS (London). BAL 24–18 TEN. NE 29–26 BUF. CHI 23–12 NYJ. JAX 22–17 CIN. DAL 34–30 HOU. NYG 36–24 ARI. LAR 24–20 PHI. GB 17–14 TB. MIN 15–10 MIA. KC 30–27 LV. SEA 30–23 LAC. SF 24–14 DEN. CAR 32–26 DET.

Monday: Falcons at Saints, later.

Sticky things (the ones that might actually last)

Walker is not a hot streak. He’s a role. 22 carries, 177 yards, 2 scores. That’s the second 170-plus rushing game in four weeks, and the only other names on that list this early are Jim Brown and O.J. Simpson. Patrick Mahomes went 15-of-30 for 225 and 2 scores and K9 still had the whole offense for long stretches. I floated this as “Andy Reid with a real lead back.” Four weeks in, that’s what it looks like. Emmett Johnson is still the handcuff. 87 carries, 537 yards through four games. Raise him again.

McMillan on Sunday Night was the role I was waiting on. 14-192-2 on 16 targets. 41.0% of the looks. Bryce Young went 29-of-41 for 329 and 2 scores. Chuba Hubbard was the back (20-122-2). Carolina is 2-2 and just beat a Lions team that cannot stop anyone. McMillan’s vertical work in Week 2 was the tell. This is the volume.

Lamb is the one you don’t overthink. 17-189-1 on 21 targets. 48.8% of Dak’s looks. 11-140-1 after halftime. Javonte Williams punched in three (19-62-3 plus 5-21). Three rushing scores is noisy. The goal-line job might not be. Bank Lamb.

Kyren with Puka back is the receiving profile I’ve been chasing. 16-80-2 plus 10-67 on 13 targets (26.0% of the looks). 26 touches, 147 yards from scrimmage, two scores, and it came in a 24–20 comeback, not a blowout. Puka Nacua was absolutely back (9-125 plus a 2-yard rushing score on 12 targets). Davante Adams went 4-32 on 9. That’s the expected split when the actual alpha is on the field. I’m not dumping Adams. I am treating Kyren as an RB1 with a real passing-game floor even after Puka returns.

Monangai just got 30 carries. 146 yards, 2 scores, plus a catch. Tyson Bagent started (25-of-34, 268, a pick) after Case Keenum handed off on the first play and sat down. Chicago ran 89 plays, held the ball for 42:45, and D'Andre Swift went 15-58 with a fumble. Same split I flagged after Week 1. Monangai ate. Ben Johnson has now won with three different quarterbacks in four weeks. I’m raising Monangai. I’m not calling it a timeshare funeral. Swift still got 15.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba had the quiet version and still saw 30.0% of the targets (5-76 on 6). Sam Darnold went 13-of-22 for 168 and 2 scores. Emanuel Wilson was the backfield with Jadarian Price on IR (21-81-1 plus 3-39-1). I said the alpha role holds even if Seattle’s passing game gets worse. It got quieter. JSN is still the Seahawks offense. Wilson is a volume RB2 for as long as the top two are out.

Jahmyr Gibbs went 15-46-1 plus 4-31 on 7 targets in a loss. Jared Goff threw for 412. Amon-Ra St. Brown was 8-75. Jameson Williams went 6-102. Sam LaPorta was 8-84-1. Detroit’s defense is the problem. Gibbs is 80-353-5 plus 22-187 through four. Don’t let 2.9 yards a pop talk you off the workhorse.

Brock Bowers went 6-86-1 on 11. Ashton Jeanty still got 15-58 plus 6-68. Volume is sticky. Zero rushing touchdowns through four games is the yellow flag. Kirk Cousins threw for 365. Jeanty’s receiving work is the standalone piece. The rushing efficiency is still not.

Bhayshul Tuten has the Jags lead-back job. 17-73, and two touchdown runs came back for holding. Four weeks of 13-plus carries. Trevor Lawrence went 18-of-23 for 227. Brenton Strange saw 34.8% of the targets (7-95). Parker was 1-7 on 3. The monopoly I liked in Weeks 1–2 is gone. Jacksonville is 3-1. Tuten is the back. Strange is the stream.

Zay Flowers looks healthy. 8-118-1 on 10 targets in a half, basically, because Lamar Jackson left with the ankle. Must-start. Derrick Henry went 23-73-1. That’s Henry.

Nico Collins is back. 7-118-2 on 8 targets. Houston is 0-4. Nico is the one Texans skill player I’m starting every week. Dalton Schultz goes back to the bench.

Thursday: Harold Fannin Jr. scored again (3-27-1) and played 89% of the snaps. The 30% share from Week 3 did not repeat. Denzel Boston was 4-89. Quinshon Judkins went 17-53-1 plus 6-43. Jaylen Warren played 97% of Pittsburgh’s snaps (17-93 plus 3-33). That’s the Steelers back. Fannin’s snaps are stickier than last week’s share.

Colston Loveland finally has a box score. 6-57 on 9 targets (29.0%) with Bagent. Three weeks of process, then this. Rome Odunze was 6-94. Luther Burden III was 4-63. If you have Loveland, you start him. I’m still not calling him the focal point of a Bears offense that’s currently a run game with a backup quarterback.

Injuries that actually change rest of season

Thornton went 5-111-2, including the 55-yarder that flipped Kansas City’s game, and then dislocated the left ankle on the tackle. Doctors put it back. Cart. MRI and a second opinion Monday. Rapoport had him out indefinitely. That’s a first-half-of-the-season hole next to Rice. Xavier Worthy was 4-70 on 7. He’s the Chiefs WR you actually start this week. Travis Kelce was 2-15. I’m not streaming Kansas City pass catchers and hoping. Walker just became even more of the offense.

Rice left in the first quarter with a right hamstring after a short catch. Reid called it a tweak. The Athletic’s Mike Silver had several weeks. Hamstrings lie, and they also linger. I raised Rice last week after the 39% share. I’m not starting him until we see a practice week. Have Worthy ready. Have a backup for the bye after that.

Ladd left Seattle with a foot and finished 0-for-2. The Chargers are 0-4. Rashawn Slater (ankle), Joe Alt (neck), and Donte Jackson (hamstring) all left too. Omarion Hampton went 9-45-1. Keaton Mitchell was 10-39 plus 5-24 on 6 targets. Kimani Vidal mixed in (5-25 and a receiving score). That’s a three-man backfield on an 0-4 team that’s about to play Denver and Kansas City. I was on the McDaniel hype train all summer. Ladd is my highest best-ball exposure. I’m not selling him for peanuts. I’m also not starting him, Hampton as an RB1, or Herbert as a weekly QB2 until somebody on that offense looks healthy and functional.

Chase took a face-mask to the turf in the second quarter and went into concussion protocol. 3-27. He hasn’t missed a game to injury since 2023. Protocol is protocol. Have Higgins ready, except Higgins hurt the adductor in the fourth after 11-157 on 16 targets and could not finish. Joe Burrow went 39-of-54 for 428, a pick, another pick, and a rushing score. Chase Brown caught 11-71. If both WRs sit against Miami, Brown’s receiving work is the Bengals skill player I’d rather have. Don’t assume Chase is a one-week sit. Concussions lie too.

Lamar rolled the left ankle late in the first half, 15-of-20 for 222 and 2 scores, and did not return. Walking boot. Day-to-day, per Rapoport. Tyler Huntley went 8-of-9 for 63 and Baltimore scored zero after halftime. Henry still got 23 carries. If Lamar sits at Atlanta on Sunday Night, Huntley is a Superflex dart, not a 1QB start. Flowers stays in. Henry stays in.

Saquon left on a 6-yarder in the first quarter with a hamstring. Two carries, 8 yards. NBC Philadelphia had him walking normally out of the stadium. Hamstrings still lie. Tank Bigsby inherited the job (14-55) and then pulled up lame in the fourth. Will Shipley was 6-23. Philadelphia is a mess. DeVonta Smith sat. Dallas Goedert sat again. Jalen Hurts threw for 93 yards. Darius Cooper scored twice (3-33-2). That’s a dart, not a WR3 you feel good about. The Jaguars in London is next. If Saquon sits, you’re guessing among Bigsby, Shipley, and “please nobody else get hurt.”

DJ Moore spiked the helmet and left with the same left shoulder (AC) he dinged in Week 2. 1-11 plus a rush. Doubtful to return, then he didn’t. Keon Coleman went 6-116-1. That’s the add I wanted two weeks ago. If Moore sits against the Rams on Monday Night in Week 5, Coleman is a WR3/flex. Josh Allen threw a late pick he did not need to throw and Buffalo is 3-1 anyway.

Marcus Mariota aggravated an MCL on a sack in London and seventh-rounder Athan Kaliakmanis finished it (15-of-33, 186, a score, a pick). McLaurin was a surprise inactive with a hamstring. Jayden Daniels is still out, maybe Week 6. Stefon Diggs was 5-35. Jacory Croskey-Merritt was 9-15. Don’t stream Kaliakmanis in 1QB.

Justin Jefferson sat with the ankle. O’Connell sounded hopeful for Week 5 at New Orleans. Hockenson became the offense (13-119 on 13 targets, 39.4%). Aaron Jones went 20-94 plus 4-34. Jordan Addison was 4-52 on 6. If Jefferson sits again, Hockenson is a must-start. Addison is the fill-in, not a smash. Minnesota is 4-0 and has not scored a touchdown in two of those games. That’s a fun sentence. It’s also a ceiling problem.

Breece Hall sat (quad). Braelon Allen went 14-59 in a 12-point game. Flex if Hall sits again. Not the 20-touch smash.

De'Von Achane is done. Gordon went 9-100-1. Jaylen Wright was 5-7. Efficiency, not volume. RB2/flex on an 0-4 team. Don’t bid like you found 2023 Achane.

Baker Mayfield is still out. Jalon Daniels went 19-of-27 for 148, a score, 2 picks. Tampa is 0-4. Bucky Irving was 16-61. Volume RB2 with a shrinking ceiling. Sit the passing game.

Caleb Williams is still the Grade 2. Bagent at Green Bay is not the 59-point offense. Swift and Monangai are the starts.

Puka played. Groins linger, but 9-125 is not a pitch count that killed him. Adams is a WR2/3 now, not the alpha.

Trending up (raise the rest-of-season number)

Kenneth Walker. Last week was 18 carries in a game they led the whole way. This week was 177 and 2. The average comes back to earth. The role might not.

McMillan. 41% of the targets against Detroit is championship-roster stuff. Hubbard’s 20 carries in the same game is the other half of that sentence. Raise both.

Lamb, Kyren, Puka. Locked-in weekly difference-makers. Kyren’s receiving work with Puka on the field is the projection change.

Monangai. Thirty carries is not the weekly baseline. 60 carries, 324 yards, 3 scores through four games is a real piece of a Ben Johnson offense. Raise him. Keep Swift.

Maye and Doubs. 269, 3 scores, 54 rushing, and a road win in Buffalo. I was not starting Maye as a weekly QB2 after seven turnovers in three games. This was the building-block tape. Doubs is the Patriots pass catcher with A.J. Brown still on IR.

Gordon, Hockenson, Coleman, Flowers, Nico, Judkins, Javonte, Wilson, Loveland. First 100-yard game in Achane’s job, 39% with Jefferson out, 116 after Moore left, a healthy Zay, Nico’s 8-target smash, receiving work in Cleveland, three punch-ins, 24 touches in Seattle, and Loveland’s first actual target night.

Jonathan Taylor went 20-95-2. Volume RB1. The Colts passing game without Alec Pierce and Keenan Allen is not something I’m buying. JT is.

Malik Nabers went 6-112-1 with Jameis Winston. Isaiah Likely saw 41.4% of the targets (7-66 on 12). Giants are 3-1. Nabers is a weekly WR2 if Winston keeps this up. Likely is the tight end.

Christian McCaffrey went 15-52-1 plus 3-18. Kaelon Black was 6-13. I’m not dumping CMC. I’m also not pretending this is 2023.

Trending the wrong way

Herbert and McDaniel. 19-of-31, 189 yards, a pick, another pick, a strip-sack to ice it. The Chargers are 0-4. Six interceptions, 10-plus sacks through four. Next is Denver, then Kansas City, then a bye. I am not declaring the season dead. I am lowering every Chargers passing projection until we see a single functional half and Ladd’s foot is a practice report, not a rumor.

Kincaid went 1-7 on 2 targets. That’s two quiet weeks after two smash weeks. James Cook was 12-75-1. Volume down from the 24-carry night. Allen still ran in a score. I’m not walking back Cook. I am squinting at Kincaid until the snap share looks like Weeks 1–2 again. New England just beat them. The Rams on Monday Night in Week 5 is not a smash if Moore and Kincaid are both dinged.

Parker Washington. 1-7 on 3 targets in a win. Two weeks of 40% share, then Meyers, then Strange. I wanted Parker as a next-tier WR in auction. I’m not panic-selling. I am treating him as a WR3/flex with a role, not a locked-in WR2, until the target share shows up again. BTJ scored (2-17-1) on 2 targets. That’s a punch-in, not a role change. Two years of this is still a role change.

Harrison Jr. Four weeks: 1-33, 0-catch, 3-40, 1-12-1. Michael Wilson went 7-95 on 13 (37.1%). Trey McBride still ate targets (7-31 on 12). I’m not starting Harrison until the share looks like a WR2. Wilson is still the Cardinals WR. Jeremiyah Love was 14-63. Share is there. Offense coughed up a 14–3 lead.

Henderson did not hold the lead job. 14-42, no catches. Rhamondre Stevenson was 13-47-1 with 3-27. Maye’s night was the story. The backfield is a committee. Sit Henderson as a league-winner bet. He’s a dart with a pulse.

Lloyd. 7-13 plus 5-36 receiving. Kaleb Johnson had 8-42 and fumbled at the 3. I flipped on Lloyd when Josh Jacobs hit the commissioner’s exempt list, then three weeks looked like a committee. The receiving work is the first interesting tape. I’m still not starting him over actual RBs. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are the Packers fantasy players.

Hampton’s 23-carry week looks like the high. Nine carries, Mitchell and Vidal on the field. I’m lowering the RB1 talk to committee back on an 0-4 team.

Waddle scored (5-35-1) and RJ Harvey led Denver in receiving (10-68 on 10). J.K. Dobbins got the early downs (11-40). Bo Nix will spread it out. Don’t panic-sell Waddle. Don’t auto-start him over actual WR2s.

Josh Downs went 3-16 with Pierce and Allen out. One London clunker. Daniel Jones still turns it over. The passing game is JT’s supporting cast.

The Eagles offense is a crisis. 172 yards. 0-for-12 on third down. Hurts with 93 passing yards. Cooper’s two scores papered over a unit that cannot convert. I’m not sitting Hurts if he plays. I am lowering every Eagles skill-player projection until the bodies are back.

League-winner watch

Walker, if 20-plus carries is just a week. That’s a top-5 RB profile, and the Chiefs just lost two starting receivers in the same afternoon.

McMillan if 40% of Young’s looks is the new normal. Late-round-turned-WR1 in best ball. “Why did I fade Carolina after Week 1” in redraft.

Kyren’s receiving work with Puka back. That’s how RB2s become RB1s in PPR.

JSN. Four weeks. Two quarterbacks. Still the WR1 on the board in PPR even on a 5-76 night.

Gibbs. Four weeks. Workhorse. Passing-game work. The historic season profile is still on the table.

Bowers, because tight end is where seasons get won. Lamb. 17-189-1 is not a take. That’s a public service announcement.

Monangai is the cheaper version of the Walker sentence. Not a first-round league winner. A waiver one. Those count too. Gordon is in that conversation if Miami ever finds an offense.

A few more notes

George Kittle went 4-70-1, including the 56-yard screen that ended Denver. Ramp-up is over. Deebo Samuel scored. Mike Evans was 5-76 after the ribs. The 49ers are 4-0. Don’t overthink that group.

DK Metcalf went 5-115. First actual WR1 tape from a WR1 draft slot. Warren is still the back I’d rather have in Pittsburgh.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. scored on 6-35. I had him as a $1 dart in the auction plan. He’s Tuten’s spell back. Not a timeshare I’m betting FAAB on.

Olave and the Saints get their own paragraph after Monday. Penix and Bijan too.

What I’m watching

Tonight is Falcons-Saints. If you have Bijan Robinson, Drake London, or Chris Olave, you already know. I’ll leave it.

Lamar’s walking boot. That’s the biggest rest-of-season fulcrum of the week. Huntley at Atlanta is not the same offense.

Chase’s concussion protocol. Higgins’ adductor. If both sit at Miami, you’re starting Brown and hoping.

Ladd’s foot. Rice’s hamstring. Thornton’s MRI. Walker is the constant.

Saquon’s hamstring. Philadelphia at Jacksonville in London. Jefferson at New Orleans — if he sits, Hockenson is the smash.

Caleb still out. Bears at Green Bay. Monangai and Swift are the starts.

Thursday is Tampa at Dallas. If you streamed Jalon Daniels, sit him. Lamb is the other side of that sentence.

And then we can talk about the rest of Week 5 after the Sunday slate. Ravens-Falcons on Sunday Night and Bills-Rams on Monday can wait.