Week 5 Waiver Wire

Alright, Monday is in the books. Falcons 45, Saints 24. I skipped it in the last post on purpose. This is that game, then who I’m actually adding this week.

Four weeks of data and another pile of injuries. Saquon Barkley is week-to-week. Tank Bigsby is on IR. Ja'Marr Chase is in concussion protocol. That’s when you win redraft leagues. Last year I won mine because of waiver adds. Don’t sit this one out.

Stock up: Bijan Robinson, Michael Penix Jr., Drake London, Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson

Stock down / caution: Tyler Shough (the pressure, not the box score), the Saints defense, Alvin Kamara (knee, then the 3.3 yards a pop), Brian Robinson (three scores is noisy)

The scoreboard, real quick

ATL 45–24 NO.

Monday Night

I spent Thursday telling you I had to eat the Bijan fade. Then I spent Sunday telling you Penix and Bijan could wait until Monday. They did not wait.

Bijan scored on Atlanta’s third play. 59 yards. Fourth straight Monday with at least 125 rushing yards, tied with Eric Dickerson and Emmitt Smith. I am not burying that like it’s a fun fact. That’s the role.

He finished 19-145-2. Brian Robinson punched in three (14-62-3). Combined, 33 carries, 207 yards, five rushing scores. Bijan got the work. Brian stole the scores. Same yellow flag I keep writing in this backfield. The 19 carries are not. Three punch-ins from the 4, the 8, and the 11 are.

Penix was the adult in the room. 15-of-20 for 223, a 31-yard score to Jahan Dotson, zero picks, sacked once. Two games back from the ACL: 33-of-45, 479 yards, 2 scores. Atlanta had 16 points in two games with Cooper Rush and 80 in two with Penix. That’s a real offense again. London was 5-96 on 6. Kyle Pitts was 3-47 on 3. If you have Bijan or London, you start them against Baltimore on Sunday Night even if Lamar Jackson sits.

The Saints lost the game before the Who Dat chant had time to matter. Three-and-out. Missed Daniel Carlson field goal. Kendre Miller fumble, Falcons at the 22. 14–0. Olave flipped the field with a 44-yarder and Kamara punched one in from the 3. Atlanta answered every time New Orleans got within striking distance. That’s not a fluke half. That’s a mismatch.

Shough went 30-of-48 for 286 and a late score to Devaughn Vele. Zero picks. Also pressured on a third to half of his dropbacks, sacked twice, and the only touchdown pass came with 1:13 left from the 3. I told you Shough has been fun and also a turnover machine. Monday was volume without the splash. Olave was the usage (8-116 on 12). Johnson was next (6-59 on 8). That’s the Saints passing game. Vele’s 6-54-1 is a garbage-time clip. Do not spend FAAB on it.

Kamara left with a knee in the third and came back. 7-23-2 plus 5-35 on 7. Travis Etienne is on IR. The receiving work is the sticky part. 3.3 yards a pop on seven carries is not. If the knee talks, Miller is not the add. He’s the guy who fumbled on the first play of a drive.

New Orleans ran for 50 yards. Eight penalties. One first-quarter touchdown all year. Minnesota at home on Sunday is a 4-0 team that might have Justin Jefferson back, not a get-right spot.

Jake Matthews dinged the groin in his 200th start. Za'Darius Smith went into concussion protocol. Falcons-Ravens is Sunday Night. If Lamar’s walking boot is still on, this Atlanta tape is the problem for anyone expecting Huntley to throw you into a win.

The waiver wire

Sunday created the board. Monday just confirmed Atlanta is a run game with a quarterback again, which does not help you on waivers. Roster rates below are the “still sitting in most redraft leagues” kind of number — call it under 50% on ESPN and Yahoo, with a couple of notes where the platforms disagree.

Spend your FAAB like a person who has watched four weeks, not like a person who watched one box score. Saquon’s hamstring is not the same claim as Bigsby needing surgery. Chase’s protocol is not the same claim as Tee Higgins being day-to-day.

QB

Kirk Cousins (mid-teens on ESPN, closer to the mid-20s as a blend). Three straight weeks over 20 fantasy points. 365 and 2 against Kansas City. I raised Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers off that offense. The quarterback is the piece still sitting there. New England this week is a tougher draw. I’m not starting him over an actual QB1. I am rostering him through the bye weeks, because Kansas City and Carolina are both off and somebody in your league is about to stream a dart. Cousins is the grown-up version of that dart.

Aaron Rodgers (high single digits). Back-to-back 290-plus, 3-score games. Indianapolis this week, Tampa after that, New Orleans in Paris in Week 7. If your starter is Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, or on a bye, this is the add. I’m not putting him in the Cousins tier. I am taking the two-week runway.

Jacoby Brissett (around 10%). I wanted him last week for the Giants, then Detroit. He threw three picks against New York and still gets the Lions at home. Detroit has been the worst fantasy defense against quarterbacks in the league. Superflex, he’s a start. 1QB, he’s the stream if Cousins and Rodgers are gone. C.J. Stroud is 37% on ESPN and already rostered in more than half of Yahoo rooms. If he’s sitting, take him over Brissett for the rest of the season. If he’s gone, Brissett is the one-week smash.

Jameis Winston is 3%. Washington this week is the spot. He’s a stream, not a stash.

RB

Will Shipley is the FAAB hammer. About 1% everywhere. Barkley left Sunday with a hamstring. Rapoport has him week-to-week, not months. The Inquirer had him unlikely for London. Bigsby then pulled the core muscle, needs surgery, and landed on IR. Four to six weeks. There is no other running back on the active roster. I told you Sunday you were guessing among Bigsby, Shipley, and “please nobody else get hurt.” The guessing is over. Shipley played 29 snaps, 6-23, 15 routes. That’s not a 20-touch smash on tape. It is the only healthy back on a 2-2 team that just went 0-for-12 on third down. Jacksonville in London is a brutal draw. Bid like you need a running back who will see 15-plus touches on an island. Do not bid like you found 2023 Saquon. If Barkley pops up on Wednesday’s practice report, scale it. If he doesn’t, this is your claim.

Keaton Mitchell (high teens on ESPN, mid-30s on Yahoo). 10-39 plus 5-24 on 6 targets. One more snap than Omarion Hampton, 15 touches to Hampton’s 11. Harbaugh said the three-man thing is “best for our team.” I lowered Hampton after he lost the receiving work. You’re not starting Mitchell over actual RBs. You are rostering the explosive one in a backfield Mike McDaniel is already splitting, because Ladd McConkey’s foot and a 0-4 record are how committees become jobs in October.

Tyler Allgeier (high 20s to low 40s). Produced with Jeremiyah Love active. Love is the back. Allgeier is the handcuff who keeps eating anyway, and Detroit at home is a plus script if Arizona falls behind. Don’t pay Shipley money. Do not let Love owners get him for $3 either.

Emanuel Wilson is flirting with 50%. 24 touches against the Chargers, Jadarian Price on IR, Zach Charbonnet practicing. I put Wilson in this column two weeks ago at 1%. If he’s still sitting there, take him. Charbonnet’s practice week is the yellow flag, not the 27-point night.

Brian Robinson just scored three times on national TV. People will burn FAAB on 14-62. Don’t. Bijan is the back.

WR

Keon Coleman (around 4%). 6-116-1 on 7 targets after DJ Moore left with the same left shoulder. I wanted Coleman as a sleeper two weeks ago. Now it’s a real WR3/flex with Josh Allen if Moore sits against the Rams on Monday Night. Khalil Shakir is already rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues. Coleman is the one still sitting there. The Rams and Raiders are not gifts. Allen is. I’m not paying Shipley money. I am putting in a claim.

Tre Harris (around 10%). 93% of the snaps against Seattle. Quentin Johnston was at 75. I put Harris in the sleeper bin last week and told you Denver was nasty. Denver just lost Patrick Surtain II to an ankle. Ladd’s foot is a practice report. Harris is the Chargers receiver trending the right way on an 0-4 team. That’s not a WR2. It is the shot if you already missed Coleman.

Malik Washington (high 20s to mid-30s). Team-high usage again in a 10-point game (5-67 plus two carries). I called him a volume WR3 in a bad offense after De'Von Achane tore the ACL. Four weeks of 40-plus receiving yards later, that’s still the sentence. Cincinnati this week is the plus spot. The Week 6 bye is the tax. Chris Bell is still the deeper stash.

Romeo Doubs is flirting with 50% after two scores in Buffalo. If he’s sitting, he’s a fine WR3. I’m not burning a top claim with A.J. Brown still on IR.

TE

Mike Gesicki (high single digits). Three scores in four games. 11-155-3 on 15 targets. Snap share still in the 60s, which is the yellow flag, and also the highest it’s been. Chase is in protocol. Higgins is day-to-day. Miami just dumped 13-119 on T.J. Hockenson. If your starter is a stream, this is the week. The bye after that is why you don’t pay up like he’s Brock Bowers.

T.J. Hockenson himself (low 30s to mid-40s depending on the room). 13-119 on 13 with Jefferson out. 39.4% of the looks. If Jefferson sits at New Orleans, Hockenson is a must-start. If he plays, this is still a plus matchup — the Saints had already given up 25-250-2 to tight ends through three weeks, then Johnson just saw 8 more on Monday. I’m putting in a claim if Gesicki is gone and your TE is a prayer.

Tyler Higbee (around 2–3%). Terrance Ferguson is on IR with the ankle. I told you to add Ferguson after the nine-target Monday. That stash just turned into Higbee. 13-129 since Week 3. Buffalo on Monday Night is a plus spot. Brenton Strange is the other stream after 7-95. I’d rather have Gesicki. I’d take Higbee over chasing last week’s Strange line.

Deep sleepers (under 5%)

Dohnte Meyers (under 1%). Former CFL guy. 7-82 on 9 targets after Chase and Higgins both left. That’s not a WR2. It is the next look in a Joe Burrow offense that just threw 54 times, against a Dolphins defense that cannot cover anyone. I would not start him if Higgins is active. I would roster him in 12- and 14-teamers if Chase sits. Chase Brown’s 11 catches are the other ticket. Meyers is the one still sitting at 0%.

Austin Ekeler (around 2%). Came back from the Achilles, played 26% of the snaps, led Washington’s backs with 4-29 while Jacory Croskey-Merritt went 9-15. Rachaad White sat with a shoulder. I am not starting him against the Giants. I am taking the shot if I have a last bench spot, because 31-year-old passing-down backs on desperate teams are how you steal a flex in November.

Shipley is 1% and I already put him in the RB section. That’s how you should treat him. Don’t hide a last-man-standing backfield behind a core surgery in the sleeper bin.

D/ST (next 2–3 weeks)

If your league still uses a defense, stop streaming week to week like it’s 2014. Grab a unit with a two- or three-week runway.

Giants (high single digits). Washington, New Orleans, Houston. I told you this was a schedule, not a brand, after they got dropped on national TV in Week 2. The next three weeks are Athan Kaliakmanis or whoever Dan Quinn is starting, Shough’s Saints after they just ran for 50, and an 0-4 Texans team. Six interceptions already. Nobody is going to fight you for this.

Cowboys (mid single digits on ESPN, teens as a blend). Tampa Bay on Thursday, Green Bay, Philadelphia. Jalon Daniels is the starter. Tampa is 0-4. That’s the smash. Green Bay in Week 6 is the tax. Philadelphia in Week 7 is missing Barkley, Bigsby, and probably DeVonta Smith again. Two smash weeks with a Packers sandwich.

Browns (around 40% on ESPN, still sitting in a lot of Yahoo rooms). Jets, Baltimore, Tennessee. Four interceptions and 11 sacks in three games. The Jets just lost to Chicago with Breece Hall out. Baltimore might be Tyler Huntley. The Titans haven’t cleared 20. If Cleveland is available, they’re the adult pick for three weeks. If they’re gone, use a claim on the Giants.

Bengals at Miami is the smash of the week. High teens. Then a bye. If you only need one game, take them. If you want a runway, don’t. Jacksonville is rostered in about half of ESPN leagues. Philadelphia in London, Houston at Wembley. If they’re sitting there, they’re the other adult pick. I’m not fighting 55% ownership when the Giants are free.

What I’m watching

Barkley’s practice week. Shipley is the add either way. Scale the bid to Wednesday.

Lamar’s walking boot. Huntley at Atlanta is a Superflex dart, not a 1QB start. Bijan and London stay in.

Chase’s protocol. Higgins’ adductor. If both sit at Miami, you’re starting Brown and hoping, and Meyers is the dart.

Jefferson at New Orleans. If he sits, Hockenson is the smash.

Caleb still out. Bears at Green Bay. Kyle Monangai and D'Andre Swift are the starts. Tyson Bagent is not a 1QB stream.

Charbonnet’s practice week. Wilson’s 24 touches only matter until the actual lead back is dressed.

Thursday is Tampa at Dallas. If you streamed Daniels, sit him. CeeDee Lamb is the other side of that sentence.

And then we can talk about the rest of Week 5 after the Sunday slate. Ravens-Falcons on Sunday Night and Bills-Rams on Monday can wait.