Week 6 Waiver Wire

Alright, Monday is in the books. Bills 37, Rams 34. I skipped it in the last post on purpose. This is that game, then who I’m actually adding this week.

Five weeks of data and another pile of injuries. David Montgomery is week-to-week. Will Shipley has a partial plantar fascia tear. Saquon Barkley is still a hamstring. Detroit, Minnesota, Cincinnati, and Miami are on bye. That’s when you win redraft leagues. Last year I won mine because of waiver adds. Don’t sit this one out.

Stock up: Josh Allen, James Cook, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Tyler Higbee

Stock down / caution: Kyren Williams (the 3.1, not the punch-in), the Rams kicking game, Cook’s fumbles, DJ Moore (shoulder, inactive), Dalton Kincaid (1-7 on 2)

The scoreboard, real quick

BUF 37–34 LAR (OT).

Monday Night

I spent Sunday telling you Bills-Rams could wait. Then they played a game with six straight lead changes, a blocked field goal, and Allen’s first overtime win.

Allen went 12-of-19 for 210, a score, a pick, and 10-121-1 on the ground. 331 total yards. 11.1 per attempt. Buffalo ran for 234. That’s the script.

Cook was the back. 25-111-2. The 17-yarder. The 5-yarder with 1:39 left that should have ended it. He also put it on the ground twice, and the one Nate Landman punched out in overtime was recovered by Aaron Donald. Volume RB1 with a yellow flag you already knew about. Don’t sit him at Vegas. Hope the ball stays in.

Keon Coleman scored (1-7-1 on 2). Khalil Shakir hit the 57-yarder in overtime (3-80 on 3). Ty Johnson led the team in targets among the skill guys who aren’t named Cook (4-72 on 4). Moore sat with the shoulder. Josh Palmer sat too. That’s not a WR1 night for Coleman. It is a dump-off night in a game Buffalo ran 37 times. Coleman is still the Bills receiver I’d rather have if Moore sits at Vegas. Johnson is the dart.

Kincaid was 1-7 on 2, plus the two-point conversion. I am not walking back the tight end. I am also not pretending 7 yards on national TV is a TE1 print.

Matthew Stafford was the other half of the shootout. 40-of-54 for 383, 3 scores, zero picks. Puka ate 17-138-1 on 24. Career-high catches. Longest was 21. That’s a PPR video game built out of checkdowns, not the 195-yard Australia-revenge tape. You start him every week. You do not change his rest-of-season number because he caught 17 of them.

Adams was 5-51-2. Two more scores, tied Larry Fitzgerald for sixth all-time. The 4-yarder and the 5-yarder. That’s the role I wanted when Puka was in street clothes in Week 2. It held with Puka on the field. Higbee was 5-83 on 6. I told you last week that Terrance Ferguson’s IR stash had turned into Higbee. Monday was the usage.

Kyren finished 16-49-1 plus 6-27 on 8. Blake Corum punched one in (5-19-1) and caught 3-53. Same yellow flag. Kyren got the work. Corum stole a score and a chunk. 3.1 yards a pop on a night the Rams had the ball for 37:57 is the problem, not the 16 carries.

Los Angeles lost it on special teams. Harrison Mevis went 0-for-2, including the 48-yarder Greg Rousseau got a hand on in overtime. Tyler Bass went 3-for-3, the last one from 45 after Allen scrambled 19 and 13. That’s the extra session.

Rams are 2-3. Bills are 4-1. Puka, Adams, and Higbee stay in against Arizona. Cook stays in at Vegas. Coleman is the add if Moore sits.

The waiver wire

Sunday created the board. Monday just confirmed Puka is a volume monster and Higbee is a real tight end. Roster rates below are the “still sitting in most redraft leagues” kind of number — call it under 50% on ESPN and Yahoo, with a couple of notes where the platforms disagree.

Spend your FAAB like a person who has watched five weeks, not like a person who watched one box score. Montgomery’s groin is not the same claim as Shipley’s plantar fascia. Barkley’s hamstring is not the same claim as Ladd McConkey playing zero snaps.

QB

Jordan Love (high 40s on ESPN, flirting with 50%). 25-of-31 for 367, 2 scores, zero turnovers. That’s the second straight clean tape after three weeks of 52% completions. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden both cleared 120. Dallas on Sunday Night is the smash. Detroit after that. If your starter is Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, or on a bye, this is the add. I’m not paying running-back money. I am taking the two-week runway on a quarterback who just cooked Chicago.

Aaron Rodgers (around 19%). Three straight weeks over 20 fantasy points. Three scores in all three. I wanted him last week for Indianapolis, then Tampa, then New Orleans in Paris. Two of those are still in front of you. Tampa this week is a blitz-heavy 1-4 team starting Jalon Daniels. I’m not putting him in the Love tier. I am rostering him through the bye weeks, because somebody in your league is about to stream a dart. Rodgers is the grown-up version of that dart.

Jameis Winston (around 4%). 33-of-54 for 326 and 3 scores in a tie. Second straight three-score game. Malik Nabers saw 20 looks. Isaiah Likely saw 13. New Orleans this week is a plus script if Tyler Shough turns it into a track meet. Superflex, he’s a start. 1QB, he’s the stream if Love and Rodgers are gone. Kirk Cousins is mid-30s and draws Buffalo after Stafford just dropped 383 on them. Take him if Winston is gone.

RB

Woody Marks is the FAAB hammer. About 48% on ESPN, already over 50% on Yahoo. Montgomery left with a groin. DeMeco Ryans called it week-to-week, which in October usually means he sits this week and maybe the next one. Marks played 85% of the snaps the rest of the way (15-62 plus 4-23 on 4). A 24-yarder came back. Jacksonville in London is a brutal draw — they haven’t let a back clear 40. Bid like you need a running back who will see 15-plus touches on an island. Do not bid like you found 2023 De'Von Achane. If Yahoo already took him, the claim is Pierce.

Dameon Pierce (around 2%). I told you Sunday he was the leftover, not 2023 Saquon. Then Schefter had Shipley with a partial tear of the plantar fascia, multiple weeks. Barkley is still week-to-week. Tank Bigsby is on IR. Pierce inherited 16 opportunities (11-14 plus 2-minus-2 on 5). 1.3 yards a pop in London is not the weekly baseline. Carolina at home is a friendlier front than Jacksonville. If Saquon pops up on Wednesday’s practice report, scale it. If he doesn’t, this is your last-man-standing backfield again. Don’t pay Marks money. Do not let Barkley owners get him for $3 either.

Dylan Sampson (around 9%). Quinshon Judkins walked out in a boot. Sampson is eligible off IR this week. I would not start him at Baltimore. I would roster him in 12-teamers, because boots are how October backfields become jobs.

MarShawn Lloyd is flirting with 50% on ESPN and already gone in most Yahoo rooms. Two punch-ins on 10-31. If he’s sitting, take him. I’m not burning a top claim on 31 yards.

WR

Germie Bernard (around 3% on ESPN, 1% on Yahoo) is the receiver add. Michael Pittman is on IR. Roman Wilson left with a finger. Bernard matched DK Metcalf in routes, led the team with 9 targets, and went 6-80. Rodgers is cooking. Tampa this week is a plus spot. That’s not a WR2. It is a WR3/flex with a quarterback who has thrown three scores three straight weeks. I’m not paying Marks money. I am putting in a claim.

Kendrick Bourne (low single digits to 7%). The Cardinals traded Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston during the first quarter. Bourne then went 5-70 on 8. That’s the WR2 look behind Michael Wilson, with Trey McBride still eating. Arizona will play from behind. The Rams this week are a tougher draw. The target share in a pass-happy offense is the reason you’re here. I’d rather have Bernard. I’d take Bourne over chasing Darius Cooper’s four scores on seven catches.

Keon Coleman (mid-30s to 40s). I wanted him last week at 4%. Then he went 6-116-1, then he scored again on Monday on two targets. Moore sat. Shakir hit the chunk. Johnson ate the dump-offs. Coleman is still the Bills receiver sitting under 50%. Vegas is not a gift. Allen is. If you missed him Sunday night, this is the leftover claim, not the hammer.

Cooper is 9% and people will burn FAAB on the 62-yarder. Don’t. Four scores on 13 targets is a button, not a role. Dontayvion Wicks is the volume Eagle if DeVonta Smith sits.

TE

Brenton Strange (high 20s on ESPN, around 32% on Yahoo). 14-163 on 16 the last two weeks. 26.2% of the looks. I told you to stream him after London. Two weeks of that is a real tight end in an offense that will throw. Houston this week is a tougher draw. The Week 7 bye is the tax. If your starter is a prayer, this is the week. Don’t pay Brock Bowers money through a bye.

Tyler Higbee (still sitting in most rooms). I put him in this column last week at 2–3% after Ferguson hit IR. Then he went 5-83 on 6 with Puka and Adams both eating. Arizona at home is a plus spot. Snap share in 12 and 13 personnel is the sticky part, not the 30-yarder. If Strange is gone, this is the add. I’m not starting him over an actual TE1. I am rostering the Rams tight end Sean McVay just showed you for the second time in a month.

Chig Okonkwo (around 3%). 4-60 on 6 with Jayden Daniels back. San Francisco on Monday Night is ugly. The opportunity is not. I’d rather have Strange or Higbee. I’d take Chig over chasing Pat Freiermuth’s two-score night, because Freiermuth still hasn’t cleared 50 yards in a game.

Deep sleepers (under 5%)

Ty Johnson (around 2%). Four catches, 72 yards, four targets, zero carries. That’s a passing-down clip in a game the Bills ran 37 times with Moore in street clothes. I would not start him at Vegas. I would roster him in 12- and 14-teamers if Moore’s shoulder lingers, because dump-off backs next to Allen are how you steal a flex in October. Cook is the back. Johnson is the extra ticket.

Kimani Vidal (around 2%). 8-57-1, including a 42-yarder, while Omarion Hampton fell to 30% of the snaps. Keaton Mitchell still had the receiving work. That’s a three-man mess on an 0-5 team going to Kansas City. I’m not starting him there. I am taking the shot if I have a last bench spot, because committees on 0-5 teams are how somebody eventually wins a job, and Vidal is the one who keeps producing on single-digit touches.

Bernard is 3% and I already put him in the WR section. Pierce is 2% and I already put him in the RB section. That’s how you should treat them. Don’t hide a Pittman-IR receiver or a last-man-standing backfield behind a plantar fascia tear in the sleeper bin.

D/ST (next 2–3 weeks)

If your league still uses a defense, stop streaming week to week like it’s 2014. Grab a unit with a two- or three-week runway.

Steelers (still sitting in plenty of 12-teamers). Tampa Bay, New Orleans in Paris, Cleveland. Daniels is the starter. Tampa is 1-4. Shough just went 16-of-25 for 96 and 2 picks. The Browns just scored 12 on the Jets and might be without Judkins. That’s three backup-or-bad-quarterback games in a row. Nobody is going to fight you for this after they just scored 34 on Indianapolis.

Patriots (low 20s to 30s). Jets, at Chicago, at Miami. New York just won 17–12. Chicago might have Caleb Williams back, which is a tax, or Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum, which is a smash. Miami is 0-5 and coming off a bye. I’d rather have Pittsburgh’s three-week slate. I’d take New England over a one-week dart.

Giants (high single digits to teens). New Orleans, at Houston, then a bye. I told you this was a schedule, not a brand, after they got dropped on national TV in Week 2. They just tied Washington 27–27, so the brand is still in the gutter. Shough’s Saints and a 1-4 Texans team are still the next two. Six interceptions already. If Pittsburgh and New England are gone, use a claim here. Don’t hold them through the Week 8 bye.

Kansas City is around 34% and gets the Chargers at home. Thirteen giveaways, second-highest sack rate against. That’s the smash of the week. Then Seattle, then Denver. If you only need one game, take them. If you want a runway, don’t. Cleveland is around 41% and hosts Baltimore. That’s a Tyler Huntley smash if Lamar Jackson sits, and a sit if Rapoport’s “some hope” turns into a start. Don’t spend FAAB on a maybe.

What I’m watching

Barkley’s practice week. Pierce is the add either way. Scale the bid to Wednesday.

Montgomery’s groin. Marks is the add either way. Ryans’ “week-to-week” is the sentence that makes you pay. A limited Montgomery is not the same as an inactive one.

Lamar’s ankle. Minter didn’t know about Wednesday. Rapoport had “some hope.” Huntley at Cleveland is a Superflex dart, not a 1QB start. Zay Flowers and Derrick Henry stay in.

Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs. If he sits, you’re starting Drake London and Bijan Robinson anyway and you’re not touching Tua Tagovailoa in 1QB.

CeeDee Lamb’s bruise before Green Bay on Sunday Night. I’m not sitting him unless Wednesday is empty. George Pickens is the Cowboys WR you actually start if Lamb is limited.

Thursday is Seattle at Denver. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s ankle. Sit-heavy if the practice reports look ugly.

And then we can talk about the rest of Week 6 after the Sunday slate. Commanders-49ers on Monday can wait.