Week 7 Fantasy Recap

Alright, Sunday Night is in the books. Thursday was New England at Chicago. Cowboys-Eagles is tonight, so I’m skipping it. This is Week 7 through Seattle’s 20–3 win.

Seven weeks is a role. Also Josh Jacobs is back, Davante Adams is on IR, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba just went 9-150-1 in a game the Chiefs scored three points. That’s a sentence.

Buffalo, the Chargers, Jacksonville, and Washington were on bye. James Cook and Ladd McConkey can sit this one out. The roles from last week did not go anywhere. Kenneth Walker III still had to play. 14-36 in a 3-point game is the first actual dud. I’m not walking the workhorse back because of one night in Seattle.

Stock up: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jahmyr Gibbs, Drake Maye, Colston Loveland, Luther Burden III, Josh Jacobs, Trey McBride, Bucky Irving, Ollie Gordon II, Braelon Allen, Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Puka Nacua, Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins, Emanuel Wilson, Joe Burrow, D'Andre Swift, Caleb Williams, Quinshon Judkins, Jameson Williams, George Kittle, Harold Fannin Jr.

Stock down / caution: Kenneth Walker III (one dud, not a fade), MarShawn Lloyd, Davante Adams (IR), Romeo Doubs (IR), Mike Evans (ribs/Achilles), Emeka Egbuka (concussion), Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Tyler Warren, Jeremiyah Love, David Montgomery, Chuba Hubbard’s carry count, Xavier Worthy, Isaiah Likely’s box score, Nico Collins, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaylen Waddle, Kyren Williams’s split, Aaron Jones, Garrett Wilson, Christian McCaffrey’s carries, Ashton Jeanty’s rushing scores, Ladd McConkey (bye/concussion), Jalen Hurts (IR)

The scoreboard, real quick

NE 24–30 CHI (Thu). PIT 16–10 NO (London). TB 43–13 CAR. NYG 27–21 HOU. IND 10–16 MIN. MIA 28–25 NYJ. SF 20–29 ATL. CLE 27–24 TEN. CIN 35–13 BAL. DEN 30–16 ARI. GB 17–20 DET. LA 35–21 LV. KC 3–20 SEA.

Monday: Cowboys at Eagles, later.

Sticky things (the ones that might actually last)

JSN with another 100-yard night against the team that was supposed to be the test. 9-150-1 on 12 targets (44.4%), plus 2-13 on the ground. Sam Darnold went 20-of-28 for 257, a score, a pick. That’s the cleanest Darnold tape since the glute. JSN is 58-867-8 through seven. Two quarterbacks. Same alpha. I said the role holds even if Seattle’s passing game gets worse. On Sunday Night it got better and he still took 44% of the looks. He’s the PPR WR1 on the board. He’s also the Seahawks offense. Both things can be true.

Gibbs off a bye did the Gibbs thing. 29-116 plus 5-27 on 6. Zero scores, 17.3 PPR, and Detroit still won 20–17. That’s 134-620-7 rushing plus 32-270-2 receiving through six games. I wanted him under $70 in auction because this was the profile. Seven weeks in (one bye), this is the profile. Jared Goff went 22-of-32 for 303 and 2 scores. Amon-Ra St. Brown was 9-153 on 11 (35.5%). Jameson Williams finally hit two in a game that mattered (5-91-2 on 9). St. Brown is the one you don’t overthink. Gibbs is the one you don’t overthink either. Jamo’s explosives are the bonus.

Maye just did the building-block tape a fourth time. 24-of-31 for 321, 2 passing scores, a rushing score, one pick. That’s 3, then 4, then 3, then 2. Rhamondre Stevenson was the cheat code (6-22 plus 5-93-1 on 5, 68.5% of the snaps). A.J. Brown saw 6 targets (3-48, 90.7% of the snaps). That’s the process I wanted. The 48 yards are still rust. Hunter Henry was 7-71 on 7. TreVeyon Henderson mixed in (24.1% of the snaps). I was not starting Maye as a weekly QB2 after seven turnovers in three games. Four cleaner weeks later, I am. Doubs is on IR. Brown is the Patriots WR you start.

Loveland with Caleb is the tight end tape I drafted. 7-69-1 on 12 targets (40.0%), 84.1% of the snaps. That’s a TE1 target share in a 30-point night. Caleb Williams went 22-of-33 for 308 and 2 scores. Swift was the workhorse again (22-78-1 plus 4-12, 85.5% of the snaps) with Kyle Monangai still out (thumb/toe). Burden went 4-130-1 on 4 in 60.9% of the snaps. Last week was 39%. That’s a role climbing. Two clean Caleb games later, this is the version I drafted. Loveland is the tight end version of that sentence.

Jacobs is back. Off the commissioner’s exempt list, active, 11-36 plus 5-55-1 on 7. I wrote in August that he might be out half the year and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was the whole year. I was wrong on the timeline. Green Bay still threw it 45 times and lost 20–17, and Jacobs was the passing-down back on night one. MarShawn Lloyd went 6-20 plus 2-15. I keep putting Lloyd on the flex radar and taking him off. The tape keeps winning. Jacobs is the Packers back until he isn’t. Lloyd is a handcuff again. I have shares in the 190s that just became contingent value. That’s fine. That’s what they were supposed to be in July.

McBride is still McBride. 10-111-1 on 13 (29.5%). Jacoby Brissett went 27-of-48 for 272. Jeremiyah Love sat a second straight (ankle). Bam Knight and Tyler Allgeier split the rest. McBride is the only Cardinals skill player I’m starting every week. 59-472-4 on 78 targets through seven. Bank it.

Irving in a 43-burger. 24-106-2. Baker Mayfield came back from the thumb (7-of-11, 64, a score). Jalon Daniels did not throw. Tampa ran it down Carolina’s throat. 165 was Week 5. 106-and-2 is the weekly baseline I can actually live with. The 20-touch job is sticky. Egbuka sat (concussion/foot). Chris Godwin Jr. saw 5 targets (4-27). That’s a “Baker threw 11 times” box score, not a WR1.

Gordon is the Dolphins back while De'Von Achane sits on IR. 25-103-1. Malik Willis went 14-of-21 for 208, 2 passing scores, a rushing score. I told you Ollie could wait a week. He waited. Then he got 25 carries. Don’t bid like 2023 Achane. Do start Gordon until Achane practices.

Braelon keeps punching the 20-touch smash. 17-104 plus 6-30 on 7. Hall was questionable (quad) and then inactive a fourth straight. Geno Smith went 23-of-30 for 287 and 3 scores. Mason Taylor punched in two (5-62-2). Omar Cooper Jr. went 5-115-1. Garrett Wilson was 2-26 on 3. If Hall sits again, Allen is an RB2. Wilson is still the Jets WR1 job. One quiet night is not a fade.

Nabers with McCarthy is still an alpha. 7-111 on 9 (33.3%). J.J. McCarthy started (20-of-28, 252, zero scores). Jameis Winston got the rushing touchdown (4-4-1) and not the job. Cam Skattebo went 17-124-1 after 6 snaps last week. Tyrone Tracy Jr. stole a score on 6 carries again. I said I was avoiding Tracy at all costs. Two punch-ins is still noisy. Skattebo’s 17 carries are the tell. Likely was 2-12 on 4. One quiet game is not a fade.

Injuries that actually change rest of season

Adams is on IR. Hamstring, ruptured in Week 6. McVay’s window is 6–10 weeks, with a cleanup procedure and a target around the Rams’ Week 11 bye. That’s not a “he’ll be back after the bye” sentence for most of us. Puka Nacua was questionable (calf) and then went 8-68-1 on 10 (34.5%). Matthew Stafford threw 3 scores. Davis Allen punched in two (4-20-2). Kyren Williams went 16-99-1. Blake Corum went 17-93-1. Puka is the Ram you start. Kyren is a volume RB2 with a shrinking ceiling. Corum is a real committee. I’m not dumping Kyren. I am done pretending this is a 20-carry job every week.

Doubs is on IR. Shoulder, the 42-yarder from last week, four-game minimum, earliest is Week 12 after New England’s bye. Vrabel would not put a date on it. DeMario Douglas and Henry are the Patriots pass catchers you actually have if Brown’s rust lasts. Protocol is protocol for Ladd. Shoulders linger for Doubs. Have a backup for both. I already did.

Evans sat. Ribs, with Achilles listed second. That’s the one that should make you squint. He was questionable last week, played Monday, and then he was Out. George Kittle ate (8-88 on 10). CMC was 7-39-1 plus 6-61 on 7. Kaelon Black stole a score (12-63-1). Deebo Samuel Sr. sat a second straight (hamstring). I’m not dumping Evans. I am not starting him until the Achilles is a rumor. Kittle is the 49ers pass catcher you start this week. CMC is still CMC. Seven carries is the yellow flag from Week 1 showing up again.

Egbuka sat (concussion, foot listed second). Sixteen targets last week, zero this week. Concussions are protocol. The foot is the one that can linger. Godwin is not a replacement for that target share. Sit Egbuka until he practices. Baker is a stream if you need a QB2, not a league-winner unlock after 11 attempts.

Lamar sat a third straight (ankle). He was limited in practice and still Out. Tyler Huntley went 23-of-34 for 298, a score, a pick, and Baltimore scored 13. Flowers still saw 11 targets (8-137-1, 32.4%). Henry was 17-45 on a 35–13 loss. Flowers stays in. Henry stays in as a volume RB2 with a shrinking ceiling until Lamar actually plays. Huntley is a Superflex dart, not a 1QB start. Buffalo is next. That’s a different game if Lamar is back. It’s a sit if he isn’t.

Hall sat a fourth straight. Questionable, then inactive. Allen is the Jets back. Miami already happened. If Hall practices, scale it. If he doesn’t, you’re starting Allen against Las Vegas.

Rice sat again (hamstring/knee). Worthy was 3-11 on 6 in a 3-point game. That’s not a WR2. That’s the Chiefs passing game on a night Patrick Mahomes went 19-of-33 for 165, zero scores, a pick. Travis Kelce led them (4-44 on 8). Start Walker. Sit Worthy until Rice practices or Mahomes looks like Mahomes.

Tyler Warren sat a second straight (groin). Jonathan Taylor went 18-95-1 plus 2-15. Volume RB1. Daniel Jones went 13-of-22 for 108 and Indianapolis scored 10. Stream Keenan Allen if you need a WR4. Don’t pay TE1 money for the backup. Love, Knight, and Allgeier are still a dartboard. McBride is the start.

Montgomery sat (groin). Woody Marks went 19-66. That’s the Texans back. Houston is on bye next week. Plan it. Monangai sat too. Swift got the 22-carry night I wanted. If Monangai is out again, Swift is an RB1.

Brian Robinson sat (hamstring). Bijan went 20-63 plus 5-59 on 5. That’s the usage I faded all summer because I thought this offense might be bad with Tua. Michael Penix Jr. went 25-of-34 for 213 and 3 scores. London finally scored (7-66-1 on 10). Kyle Pitts scored again (5-22-1). Nine carries last week was the yellow flag. Twenty with Robinson out is the green one. Don’t sit Bijan. Do notice that the Falcons will throw when they’re behind and when Penix is cooking.

Zach Charbonnet sat (knee). Emanuel Wilson went 24-100-1. I called him a dart last week. 24 carries against Kansas City is a role. If Charbonnet sits again, Wilson is an RB2. Kansas City already happened. Next is Chicago on Monday Night.

Hurts is still on IR. Blood clot, four-game minimum, clock started last week. Dallas is tonight. I’ll leave Philadelphia’s skill players for later. Saquon Barkley was questionable (hamstring) and listed active on the week-7 roster. That’s a game-time sentence, not a recap.

Ladd and Herbert were on bye. Last week was 8 snaps, 1-17, concussion. Next is the Rams. I’m not starting Ladd until he clears protocol and we see him practice. I’m also not selling him for peanuts. Highest best-ball exposure checking in again.

Trending up (raise the rest-of-season number)

JSN, Gibbs, Maye, McBride, Irving, Nabers, JT. The roles did not blink. Raise all seven.

Loveland. 12 targets, 40% of Caleb’s looks, a score. Raise him into the weekly TE1 tier. I wanted him as the Bowers/Loveland bet in auction. This is why.

Burden. 61% of the snaps, 130 yards, a score. Raise him into the weekly WR2/3 tier. Odunze is still the every-down WR. Burden is the explosive one.

Jacobs. One game is not 17 carries. It is the first actual step back toward them. Raise him into the RB2 conversation immediately. Lloyd goes the other way.

Gordon and Braelon. 25 and 23 touches. Raise both until the starter actually practices.

Skattebo. 17-124-1 after a 6-snap benching. Raise him back into the flex/RB2 tier. Tracy is still a dart.

Bijan. Twenty carries, 122 yards from scrimmage, Robinson out. Raise the floor. I was out at cost in August. The volume is winning the argument.

London. 616 yards, one touchdown through seven. That’s a better sentence than last week. Raise him because the TD drought was the only thing left to argue about. He’s a rest-of-season WR1 who just remembered how to find the end zone.

Flowers. 8-137-1 on Huntley in a 13-point game. Raise him until someone proves the target share needs Lamar. It does not.

Higgins and Burrow. 6-148-1 and 4 passing scores. Cincinnati is a passing game again. Chase scored too (5-62-1). Raise the stack.

Wilson in Seattle. 24-100-1 with Charbonnet out. Raise him into the “if the other guy sits, he’s a start” tier. That’s how late-round RBs become season-long RB2s.

Fannin. 6-91 on 9 after 1-9. I treated him like a TE1 after the 30% share in Week 3, then I told you Deshaun Watson is still Deshaun Watson. One bounce-back is not Bowers money. It is a reminder that 25% of the looks on 36 attempts is a stream you can live with. Deshaun Watson went 25-of-36 for 308 and ran one in. KC Concepcion was 8-129 on 10. Judkins came off the boot (17-96-2). Start Judkins. Stream Fannin. Concepcion is a deep-league dart who just took the volume crown for a night.

Jameson. Two scores. Raise him into the weekly WR2/3 tier behind St. Brown. Detroit will throw.

Kittle. 10 targets, 88 yards, Evans out. Raise him a tier for as long as Evans and Deebo are sitting.

Puka. Adams is not coming back this month. Raise the target share. The 68-yard night is not the ceiling. The 10 targets might be the floor.

Trending the wrong way

Walker’s efficiency. 14-36, no score, Chiefs scored 3. That’s 120-701-6 plus 18-116-2 through six games and one ugly Sunday Night. I’m not dumping him. I am not treating 19-128-2 as the weekly baseline either. Seattle’s front is allowed to win a night. Denver is next. That’s a bounce-back spot, not a panic-sell.

Lloyd. Jacobs played. Lloyd went 6-20. I put him back on the flex radar two weeks ago after two punch-ins, took him off after Strong out-snapped him, and now the starter is actually here. Watson and Golden are the Packers fantasy players. Jacobs is the back. I’m out on Lloyd as a weekly start. I keep doing this. The exempt list kept winning until it didn’t.

Kyren’s split is not a rumor. 16 and 17 carries. Two scores, two 90-yard nights, one backfield. Same yellow flag, louder. Puka is the Ram you don’t overthink. Kyren is a committee RB1. Those exist. They’re annoying.

Warren still led (18-101 plus 3-36). Rico Dowdle went 9-41 plus 6-45 on 6. Passing downs are sticky. Aaron Rodgers went 19-of-30 for 212. DK Metcalf was 2-56 on 6. Germie Bernard was 3-27 on 5. Warren is still the Steelers back. Dowdle is a real committee now that the knee is a questionable and not a sit. Don’t sit Warren. Do notice the 6 targets went to the other guy.

Hubbard in a 43–13 loss. 7-33 plus 4-27. Last week was 28-120-1. Game script is allowed to do that. Bryce Young went 14-of-27 for 163, a score, two picks. Tetairoa McMillan was 4-40 on 6. I’m not walking back the workhorse. I am not starting Hubbard like a locked-in RB1 against Green Bay on Thursday if Carolina is trailing again. The 28-carry night is the ceiling. The role is the floor when the game is close.

Jeanty. Seven games. One rushing touchdown. 8-15 (1.9 a pop) plus 8-61-1 on 8. Volume receiving is sticky. Efficiency is still not. Brock Bowers was 6-73 on 8. Tre Tucker went 5-103-1 on 12. That’s the Raiders WR I’m interested in while they play from behind. Jeanty’s receiving work is the standalone piece. The rushing scores are still a billboard.

Waddle and Nix. Nix ran (7-73-1) and threw a score. Waddle was 4-48 on 7. That’s better than 4-24. It is not a WR2 you auto-start over actual WR2s. J.K. Dobbins punched one in (6-23-1). RJ Harvey scored through the air (2-54-1). Don’t panic-sell Waddle. Don’t pay RB1 money for a Broncos committee.

CMC’s carries. 7-39-1 plus 6-61. That’s fine production. It’s 13 touches and Kaelon Black just scored on 12 carries. I said in the auction plan that I expected usage to dip a little and efficiency to bounce back. The receiving work is the standalone piece. The snap share is still not 2023. I’m not dumping CMC. I’m also not pretending this is a 25-touch job every week.

Harrison Jr. in Houston. Four targets, 1-6-1. I told you a second-round pick does not magically fix the tape. Nico was 2-6 on 5. Xavier Hutchinson scored. That’s a committee. Patience in best ball. Bench Harrison in redraft. Nico is the one you don’t overthink on a quiet night. Houston is on bye next week anyway.

Likely. 2-12 on 4. I raised him into locked-in TE1 last week. One quiet game with McCarthy is not a bench. Start him. Don’t cap him as a top-3 tight end until McCarthy proves he can feed both.

Garrett Wilson. 2-26 on 3 while Cooper and Taylor went nuclear. He’s still the Jets WR1 job. One week of Geno feeding the shiny new toys is not a role change. It is a headache if you needed a WR2 this week.

Aaron Jones. 8-26. Jordan Mason went 15-68. I told you to sell Jones before Mason was eligible. Mason is eligible. Justin Jefferson was 4-44 on 7. T.J. Hockenson scored (4-35-1). Bank Jefferson. Mason is the Vikings back if this split holds.

Golden’s efficiency. 6-39 on 12 (28.6%). Volume crown for a second straight week and a WR3 box score. Jordan Love went 27-of-45 for 274 and 2 scores. Christian Watson was 5-57 on 8. Tucker Kraft scored (4-48-1). I would rather have Watson’s explosives and Golden’s target share. You can like both. Twelve targets with 39 yards is a volume WR2, not a 104-yard one every week.

Henry with Huntley, again. 17-45, no score. That’s Henry in a 13-point game. The role is the floor when Lamar is out there. Until then, he’s a volume RB2 you start because the alternative is a dart.

Chris Olave was 6-56 on 10. Volume is sticky. Tyler Shough went 30-of-38 for 278 in a 16–10 loss. Olave is a WR2 with a shrinking ceiling until the Saints remember how to score 30. They currently do not. New Orleans is on bye next week anyway.

League-winner watch

JSN. Seven weeks. Two quarterbacks. 867 yards. Still the WR1 on the board in PPR. That’s an alpha.

Gibbs. 29 carries after a bye, in a 3-point game. That’s a top-3 RB profile.

Maye, if two-plus passing scores is just who he is now. That’s how QB2s become championship-roster QB1s. Four straight.

Loveland if 30-plus percent of Caleb’s looks sticks. Tight end is where seasons get won because everybody else is streaming.

Jacobs, if 11 carries and a receiving score is the ramp and not the job. That’s a mid-round league winner who just showed up in Week 7. Those count too.

Irving if 20-plus carries is just Tampa with Baker back. Gordon, because 25-carry games with Achane on IR are how late-round RBs become season-long RB2s.

Nabers. McCarthy, Winston, doesn’t matter. That’s an alpha.

Walker is still in this conversation after 3 points. I’m not walking that back because Seattle happened.

London, now that the touchdown column is not a zero. Rest-of-season WR1 with a TD drought was the take. Rest-of-season WR1 is the take.

A few more notes

Tony Pollard went 25-129-3. That’s noisy. 25 carries is not. Start him if you have to. Don’t raise him into the RB1 tier because of one box score.

Caleb Douglas went 2-70-2. That’s a button. Willis is a Superflex start this week, not a 1QB one going forward.

Pitts scored twice in two weeks. That’s noisy. London’s 10 targets are not.

Brock Purdy went 27-of-40 for 288, a score, two picks. CMC and Kittle are the 49ers you start. San Francisco is on bye next week anyway.

What I’m watching

Tonight is Cowboys-Eagles. If you have CeeDee Lamb, Saquon, DeVonta Smith, or Dallas Goedert, you already know. Hurts is on IR. I’ll leave it.

Thursday is Carolina at Green Bay. Hubbard versus Jacobs. Watson and Golden at home. That’s a points-under game waiting to happen if Carolina’s offense looks like Sunday again.

Ladd’s protocol. Herbert at the Rams. That’s the rest-of-season fulcrum of the week for half my best-ball teams, again. Adams is not there to steal looks. Puka is.

Lamar at Buffalo. If he sits, Huntley is not the same offense and Henry is a volume RB2 you are starting because you have to. Flowers stays in.

Maye at Miami. Brown’s rust. Doubs on IR. That’s a points-over game if New England’s passing game looks like Thursday.

Walker at Denver. Bounce-back spot. I’m not sitting him.

Houston, New Orleans, the Giants, and San Francisco are on bye in Week 8. Nabers, Likely, Skattebo, Olave, CMC, Kittle, Marks, Nico. Plan the bench accordingly.

And then we can talk about the rest of Week 8 after the Sunday slate. Bears-Seahawks on Monday can wait.