Week 3 Waiver Wire

Alright, Monday is in the books. Rams 28, Giants 6. I skipped it in the last post on purpose. This is that game, then who I’m actually adding this week.

Two weeks of data and a pile of injuries. That’s when you win redraft leagues. Last year I won mine because of waiver adds. Don’t sit this one out.

Stock up: Matthew Stafford, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams, Terrance Ferguson

Stock down / caution: Jaxson Dart (left knee), Malik Nabers, Puka Nacua (hip/groin), the Giants passing game

The scoreboard, real quick

LAR 28–6 NYG.

Monday Night

I spent the summer wanting a cheap piece of this Rams offense. Australia was a brick. Seven points. Stafford with no passing scores. I lowered the Week 2 confidence until we saw a normal home script.

This was a normal home script. And they did it without Puka.

Stafford went 22-of-31 for 327 and 4 scores. Adams was 8-195-2 on 10 targets, including a 64-yarder. That’s not “the other guy ate.” That’s an alpha night with the actual alpha in street clothes. Puka was a game-time decision with a hip that McVay called groin soreness. Not the psoas from camp. He warmed up, it didn’t take, inactive. Jordan Whittington sat too (quad). I am not burying Puka. I am also not starting him at Denver on Sunday Night until we see him practice.

Kyren still won the fantasy night. 12-85, plus 2-12-1. Blake Corum got the same 12 carries (79 yards), and it was 4-4 in the first half, so I’m not calling it garbage time. Kyren scored. Corum is the handcuff. The snap split is the yellow flag.

Ferguson is the one I’m raising immediately. 6-54-1 on 9 targets. I said in the auction plan I wanted him as my $1 tight end, a cheap piece of the Rams, maybe trade fodder if he hit. Zero catches in Australia. Nine targets on national TV with Puka out. That’s the usage I was hoping Sean McVay would actually give him. If Puka sits again, Ferguson is a TE1 stream. If Puka plays, he’s still a dart with a real role.

The Giants lost the game on the seventh snap. Dart went down with the left knee. 3-of-5, 20 yards, and he was done. X-rays were negative. Early reporting is a sprained MCL, MRI today, “miss some time” with the kind of language that usually means weeks and not months. Jameis Winston came in and went 11-of-27 for 111 and a pick. Nabers finished 1-1 on 4 targets. Darnell Mooney had the only chunk (2-48). Isaiah Likely saw 10 targets and turned them into 5-33. Volume without Dart is not the same offense.

Cam Skattebo was the back (12-36 and 4-19). Najee Harris mixed in for 4-6. New York ran for 52 yards as a team. The Rams ran for 163 and threw for 327. 481 to 182. Aaron Donald played. The Giants scored on two Dominic Zvada field goals and never found the end zone.

If you have Nabers, you’re riding it. You’re also not pretending Winston is a functional WR1 quarterback. Likely’s target share is the Giants skill player I’d still rather have on the wire than any of the running backs.

Rams-Broncos is Sunday Night. If Puka is out again, Adams is a smash and Ferguson is the add. If Puka is in, the Australia game is the outlier and this one is the baseline.

The waiver wire

Sunday created the board. Monday just added Ferguson. Roster rates below are the “still sitting in most redraft leagues” kind of number — call it under 50% on ESPN and Yahoo, with a couple of notes where the platforms disagree.

Spend your FAAB like a person who has watched two weeks, not like a person who watched one box score.

QB

Bryce Young (low 30s). Six passing touchdowns in two weeks. 23-of-36 for 287 and 3 scores against Atlanta, and it didn’t come out of nowhere after the opener. 8.9 yards per attempt is the sticky part, not the opponent. Cleveland this week is a tougher draw, and the wind off the lake is a real thing for a guy who does not have a cannon. I’m adding him for Week 4 against Detroit. The Lions have been getting cooked without Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. If your starter is Justin Herbert or Baker Mayfield, this is the stream.

Marcus Mariota (under 5%). Jayden Daniels dislocated the same left elbow he dislocated last year. Dan Quinn says he’s back this season. Last year that sentence still cost you three games, and then he did it again. Mariota is the starter. He averaged 17.8 fantasy points in his first seven fill-in starts last year. Seattle this week is ugly. Indianapolis and the Giants after that are playable, especially in Superflex. I’m not starting him in 1QB this week. I am rostering him if Daniels is going to miss a handful.

Drew Lock (under 5%). Sam Darnold sat with the hip/glute thing. Lock went 19-of-26 for 235 and all three scores went to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Washington is next, and Washington just lost Daniels. If Darnold sits again, Lock is a one-week top-15 dart. If Darnold practices, don’t burn a claim. This is a “check the inactive list” add, not a season-long stash.

RB

Jonah Coleman is the FAAB hammer. Mid-20s on Yahoo, closer to 15% on ESPN. RJ Harvey sat with a hamstring. J.K. Dobbins hurt his in the game. Coleman went 10-39-1 plus 3 catches. I had him as a $1 dart in the auction plan. Three snaps in Week 1, then the two guys in front of him both pulled hamstrings. Hamstrings lie, and they also linger. The Rams this week is not a smash matchup. The role might be. Bid like you need a running back, because you probably do.

Tank Bigsby (high teens to high 20s). Saquon Barkley left on the first carry with a stinger, came back after halftime, finished 4-9, and he’s getting an MRI. I was already spooked by Bigsby mixing in with the 1s this summer. He was the back (13-33-1, plus 2 targets). Will Shipley out-snapped him in the first half. Bigsby out-touched him. If Saquon sits against Chicago on Monday Night, Bigsby is the start. If the MRI is clean, you still want the handcuff. Saquon owners should be more aggressive than speculators. That’s not a hot take. That’s just how MRI weeks work.

Emanuel Wilson (about 1%). Jadarian Price left with a chest injury. X-rays were negative, which is the good news. Wilson then went 21-92 in a 31–7 win. That’s a blowout script on a run-heavy team. George Holani is still the passing-down guy, and Zach Charbonnet is still on the way back from a knee. Wilson is an early-down streamer for as long as Price is dinged, and Seattle goes to Washington this week. If you need a back this week and missed Coleman, this is the one sitting in 99% of leagues.

WR

Denzel Boston (high 20s to low 30s). A receiving touchdown in each of his first two games, both 45-plus yards. 5-95-1 on 7 targets against Tampa. I flagged him as a deep-league roster in the Sunday recap. Two weeks of this is not a dart anymore. Deshaun Watson going 24-of-30 is why Boston’s volume can keep showing up. The Browns offense is still the Browns offense. The playmaker is not. Carolina this week, Pittsburgh after that. I’m treating him like a WR3/flex with a weekly-boom button.

Dontayvion Wicks (mid-20s). 2-73-1 in Week 1. 5-74 on 6 targets in Week 2. Dallas Goedert hurt the right knee and did not return. DeVonta Smith became the entire passing game, and Wicks was next. Makai Lemon is the first-rounder eating snaps. Wicks is the one producing. Chicago on Monday Night is a plus matchup if Goedert sits. I’m not paying Coleman money for him. I am putting in a claim if I need a WR3.

Rashod Bateman (high teens) and Tre Tucker (mid-20s). Same sentence, two teams. Zay Flowers sat with a hamstring and Bateman went 7-88-1. Brock Bowers sat again and Tucker went 5-119-1. Both are “for as long as the star is out” adds. Flowers and Bowers might be back this week. They might not. Have the guy who already ate. Bateman draws Dallas in Rio. Tucker draws New Orleans, which is a tougher spot. I’d rather have Bateman if I can only pick one.

TE

Oronde Gadsden II (low single digits to 6%). David Njoku got carted off with a knee. The Chargers tight end room was a three-man mess. Now it’s Gadsden and a blocker. He was a midseason TE1 stretch last year (24-377-2 over four weeks) and then got drafted like a guy in a committee. The committee just lost its veteran. Buffalo this week is not a gift. The opportunity is. This is the tight end I’d actually spend FAAB on.

Terrance Ferguson (high teens). We covered Monday. Nine targets. A score. I wanted him at a dollar in auction. You can still get him for a couple of FAAB dollars, which is silly. Denver this week is a tougher spot than the Giants. I’m adding him anyway. McVay just showed you the 12-personnel version of this offense without Puka. That version has a tight end.

Pat Freiermuth (low teens). Five targets in each of the first two weeks, and he draws Cincinnati at home. The Bengals just dumped 12-140 on Dalton Schultz. Al Golden is still the coordinator. If you need a one-week tight end and Gadsden/Ferguson are spoken for, this is the stream.

Schultz himself is the best tight end on this board if he’s still sitting there. He’s already rostered in more than half of Yahoo leagues. ESPN is still in the low 20s. Nico Collins sat with a hamstring and Schultz saw 14 targets. If Nico misses another week, that’s a must-start. If your league already moved on him Sunday night, don’t chase. Go get Gadsden.

Deep sleepers (under 5%)

Kaleb Johnson (around 4%). Green Bay’s backfield is a committee with a fumble. MarShawn Lloyd scored, then put it on the ground. Chris Brooks led the snaps. Johnson led the carries (8-30) and was on the field for the overtime winning drive. Josh Jacobs is still on the commissioner’s exempt list. I flipped on Lloyd after Jacobs went on the list, then Week 1 and Week 2 both looked like a mess. Johnson is the speculative add if you think somebody eventually wins this job. Atlanta on Thursday is the look. I would not start him yet. I would roster him in 12- and 14-teamers.

Keon Coleman (around 2% on ESPN). DJ Moore left Thursday with an AC sprain. Coleman went 6-63 on 6 targets after that. I already said he was the add if you needed a Bills WR. The Chargers this week is a plus spot if Moore sits. I’m not paying Boston money. I’m taking the shot if I have a last bench spot and I need a dart that actually plays with Josh Allen.

Wilson is 1% and I already put him in the RB section. That’s how you should treat him. Don’t hide a 21-carry night in the sleeper bin.

D/ST (next 2–3 weeks)

If your league still uses a defense, stop streaming week to week like it’s 2014. Grab a unit with a two- or three-week runway.

Saints (around 1%). Las Vegas at home, Atlanta on Monday Night in Week 4, Minnesota in Week 5. They just held Baltimore to 17 (3 in the second half) and sacked Lamar three times. Kirk Cousins has six passing scores and also three picks. Atlanta’s quarterback room is a crisis. That’s the best available three-week slate on the wire.

Giants (low single digits). Tennessee, Arizona, at Washington. They just got dropped on national TV, so nobody is going to fight you for this. Cam Ward has been sacked five times already and the Titans haven’t cleared 20 points. Arizona threw for 95 yards in Week 2. Washington is about to start Mariota. The Giants defense was fine in Week 1 against Dallas. The offense is the problem. The schedule is not.

Packers (low 20s). Atlanta on Thursday, at Tampa, then Chicago. If Cooper Rush or Jack Strand is the Falcons quarterback, that’s a smash. If Michael Penix Jr. actually plays, the ceiling dips and I still want the next two weeks. Tampa is 0-2 and Chicago might be on Tyson Bagent. I’d rather have New Orleans. I’d take Green Bay over a one-week dart.

Kansas City is rostered in about a third of leagues and gets Miami then Vegas before the bye. If they’re sitting there, they’re the adult pick. If they’re gone, use a claim on one of the three above.

What I’m watching

Dart’s MRI. A sprained MCL with “some time” is not a one-week sit.

Puka’s practice week. Groin/hip, not the psoas. Those linger. Adams is locked in either way. Ferguson is the add if Puka sits again.

Saquon’s MRI and Goedert’s knee. Philadelphia at Chicago on Monday is a lot of injuries pointing at one game. Bigsby and Wicks are the adds.

Caleb’s hamstring. Bagent versus the Eagles is not the Bears offense I raised after 59 points in Week 1.

Thursday is Atlanta at Green Bay. If Penix plays, the Packers D/ST is a notch down. If he doesn’t, that’s the stream.

And then we can talk about the rest of Week 3 after the Sunday slate. Rams-Broncos on Sunday Night and Eagles-Bears on Monday can wait.